In 2024, the socio-economic development of the country in general and the industry and trade sector in particular will continue to take place in a context where the world is forecast to continue to have major and unpredictable changes with many opportunities and challenges intertwined. The global economy is forecast to continue to face challenges from weak growth and high inflation, growth is expected to slow down mainly due to the tightening of monetary policy implemented in the past two years. The instability and uncertainty of the global economy are at their highest level in many years, affecting macroeconomic stability and growth prospects of our country's highly open economy in the coming time...

Domestically, 2024 is the fourth year of implementing the 5-year socio-economic development plan for the 2021-2025 period with the heavy task of striving to achieve the set goals in the context of the first years of the planning period facing many difficulties due to the Covid-19 pandemic and global geopolitical fluctuations. Based on a comprehensive assessment of the situation, the Party and the Government have proposed basic orientations and solutions to achieve the goal of 2024: continuing to maintain macroeconomic stability, persevering with growth targets, ensuring major balances, creating a favorable environment to attract investment and promote production and business in the coming time. Prestigious international organizations continue to positively assess and forecast Vietnam's economic prospects in 2024. With great openness and increasingly deep international economic integration, the global economic context continues to pose challenges for Vietnam's socio-economic development in 2024.

Based on the viewpoints, directions and directions of the Government and the Prime Minister, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has thoroughly grasped and specified them in programs and action plans, especially closely following the fluctuations of the world economy to be flexible in management, focusing on reviewing, organizing and implementing drastically and quickly the key tasks and solutions set out; promptly removing difficulties and obstacles to mobilize all resources for development.

Positive growth indicators

According to the Report on Industrial Production and Trade Activities in May 2024, in the first 5 months of 2024, the IIP is estimated to increase by 6.81% over the same period last year (the same period in 2023 decreased by 2.01% over the same period). Of which, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 7.31% over the same period in 2023 (decreased by 2.61% over the same period in 2023), contributing 6.4 percentage points to the overall increase; the electricity production and distribution industry increased by 12.71% over the same period in 2023 (increased by 1.21% over the same period in 2023), contributing 1.1 percentage points; the water supply, waste and wastewater management and treatment industry increased by 6.31% over the same period in 2023 (increased by 5.91% over the same period in 2023), contributing 0.1 percentage points; The mining industry alone decreased by 5.21% in Q3 (the same period in 2023 decreased by 2.41% in Q3), reducing the overall growth rate by 0.8 percentage points. Industrial production grew broadly with 55 localities having an industrial production index increasing compared to the same period last year, only 8 localities had an IIP decreasing compared to the same period last year.

Regarding trade, with the recovery of the world market and increased export orders, import and export activities in the first 5 months of the year continued to flourish and achieved positive results. In May, the total import and export turnover of goods was estimated at 66.62 billion USD, an increase of 9.11% over the previous month and an increase of 22.61% over the same period last year. In the first 5 months of 2024, the total import and export turnover of goods reached 305.53 billion USD, an increase of 16.61% over the same period last year, of which exports increased by 15.21%; imports increased by 18.21% . The trade balance of goods had a surplus of 8.01 billion USD.

In the domestic market, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in May 2024 were estimated at VND 519.8 trillion, down slightly (0.11% YoY) compared to the previous month due to reduced consumer demand and travel after the long holiday of the previous month, but up 9.51% YoY over the same period last year thanks to the positive contribution of the tourism industry.

In the first 5 months of 2024, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue are estimated at VND 2,580.2 trillion, an increase of VND 8.71 trillion over the same period last year (in the same period in 2023, it increased by VND 12.31 trillion), of which revenue from accommodation and catering services increased by VND 15.11 trillion; tourism revenue increased by VND 45.11 trillion. In particular, retail sales of goods are estimated at VND 1,998.2 trillion, accounting for VND 77.51 trillion of the total and an increase of VND 7.41 trillion over the same period last year (excluding the price factor, which increased by VND 4.51 trillion). Of which, the group of food and foodstuffs increased by VND 10.51 trillion; household appliances, tools and equipment increased by VND 13.41 trillion; garments increased by VND 10.31 trillion; Means of transport (excluding cars) increased by 1.3%; cultural and educational items increased by 15.5%.

In the first 5 months of the year, retail sales of goods in some localities increased sharply compared to the same period last year, such as: Quang Ninh increased by 10.11%; Hai Phong increased by 9.51%; Can Tho increased by 8.41%; Da Nang increased by 8.21%; Ho Chi Minh City increased by 6.81%; Hanoi increased by 6.71%

According to the assessment, the results were achieved thanks to the effectiveness of the Government's support measures, the Prime Minister's drastic directions in disbursing public investment capital, implementing key industrial projects; The results of attracting and disbursing FDI capital helped increase domestic production capacity; The recovery of the world market, gradually moving to a new state, adapting to major fluctuations in 2022 and 2023; the number of new export orders increased; Outstanding results in economic foreign affairs, especially with our country's major trade partners such as the US, China... helped strengthen the confidence of investors and businesses; The capacity of enterprises, especially domestic enterprises, has been improved thanks to the combined impact of the Government's support policies (a new positive signal when domestic enterprises' export growth is nearly twice that of FDI enterprises) and confidence has been strengthened thanks to the stable domestic macroeconomic environment and the recovery trend of the world market.

Deploy tasks closely following domestic and international developments

However, the world situation is forecast to continue to develop in a complex and unpredictable manner. Inflation is forecast to remain high because the FED has no plans to cut interest rates, and aggregate demand has recovered more slowly than expected. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF, April 2024), the global economy has recovered strongly. The IMF forecasts that the world economy will continue to grow at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025; accordingly, the growth forecast for 2024 is adjusted up by 0.1% compared to the forecast in January 2024. However, according to the forecasts of the United Nations (UN) and the World Bank (WB), global economic growth in 2024 will reach 2.4%, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points lower than in 2023, respectively. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), world economic growth will reach 2.9%, 0.2 percentage points lower; the European Union (EU) forecasts global economic growth to reach 3.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower.

Economic growth in some major economies, important partners of Vietnam such as the US, EU, China, had mixed developments in the first quarter of 2024. On May 30, 2024, the world's largest economy (Vietnam's largest export market) lowered the US's first quarter GDP figures, reaching only 1.3% growth, lower than the previous preliminary result of 1.6%). Meanwhile, China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% over the same period in the first quarter of 2024, following the growth rate of 5.2% in the previous period, the highest growth rate since the second quarter of 2023. China's consumer prices in March 2024 increased by 0.1% over the same period in 2023, significantly lower than the increase of 0.7% in February 2024; The consumer price inflation rate in the Eurozone reached 2.4% year-on-year in March 2024, close to the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%. At the same time, the war situation and hot spots in the world continue to develop complicatedly and unpredictably; Many countries apply measures to attract investment back to their country (US, Korea, EU), increasing the pressure to compete for investment capital in the context of implementing global minimum tax commitments; Extreme weather conditions affecting production activities and people's lives... will also create difficulties and challenges for our country's production and export activities due to the current large openness of the economy.

Domestically, the Vietnamese economy has maintained macroeconomic stability and social stability in the context of complicated geopolitical and economic fluctuations in the world, with many difficulties and challenges, which will continue to create favorable conditions for attracting investment and promoting production and business in the coming time. International organizations have forecast that Vietnam's economy in 2024 may achieve higher growth than in 2023. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Vietnam's economic growth in 2024 will be maintained at 61.3 trillion VND. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Vietnam will rank 20th in the world with a growth rate of 5.81 trillion VND in 2024. The WB forecasts that Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 will be 5.51 trillion VND and will continue to be among the top in the world in terms of economic growth rate. According to credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, Vietnam's domestic fiscal and monetary policies have provided much support to the economy, accordingly, Vietnam's economic growth is forecast to reach 6.3% in 2024 and 7.0% in 2025. The Government is also making efforts to implement many solutions to remove difficulties and promote production and business of enterprises. The economy has shown positive signs of recovery, which is the driving force for domestic consumption growth. In addition, the abundant supply of food and foodstuffs in the country will contribute to controlling inflation. However, our country's industrial production and trade activities still have potential issues that need to be closely monitored for timely handling because the domestic context still has potential difficulties and challenges such as: Industrial production has not fully recovered (in the first 5 months of 2024, 08/63 localities had a decrease in IIP); The domestic market grew lower than the same period (8.7% compared to 12.6%); The domestic price index was under increasing pressure after the implementation of wage reform on July 1 and the adjustment of electricity prices according to the new mechanism; The export market recovered but was not yet stable; The export prices of some agricultural products such as rice, pepper, coffee, etc. increased sharply, although helping to increase export value, but there was a potential risk of disrupting the supply source because the professionalism of enterprises and suppliers was not high (there was a situation where rice exporting enterprises bid abroad at prices lower than domestic prices); The sudden increase in demand for electricity and gasoline since the beginning of 2024 has placed high demands on ensuring the supply of electricity and gasoline (accumulated electricity output in the first 5 months has increased by 12.11 TP3T compared to the same period (exceeding the high scenario of 8-91 TP3T forecasted at the end of 2023). In the last days of April 2024, the prolonged hot weather in all three regions caused the national electricity consumption to increase to a record high: the national maximum capacity reached 47,670 MW, an increase of 13.21 TP3T. Notably, on May 28, 2024, for the first time in history, the national electricity consumption per day exceeded 1 billion kWh).

In general, Vietnam's import and export activities in 2024, especially exports to key markets such as Europe and America, will have both advantages and face challenges.

Although the results in the first 4 months of 2024 are very positive, it is still necessary to closely monitor the situation to promptly respond because there are still potential difficulties and challenges. To complete the 2024 plan, in the coming time, the Industry and Trade sector will focus on implementing the following tasks:

First of all, continue to focus on synchronously and effectively implementing the tasks assigned in Resolutions 01 and 02 of the Government. Focus on implementing the Plans for implementing the National Sectoral Plans in the field of mineral energy approved by the Prime Minister to encourage investment, develop key projects, and create momentum for industrial growth in the following years.

Regarding production development: Focus on effectively implementing the National Sector Planning Implementation Plans in the energy and mineral sector; Highly concentrate with EVN, the Power Management Board and localities to deploy the 500KV line project, circuit 3, ensuring progress and quality according to the direction of the Prime Minister; Accelerate the disbursement of public investment capital, review backlogs to soon put key projects into operation; Closely monitor the electricity load situation and weather and hydrological developments to promptly respond according to the scenarios proactively developed by the Ministry for each quarter and month of 2024; ensure electricity supply in all situations to serve production...

On stabilizing and developing the domestic market:

– Continue to accelerate the review, revision, development and completion of a number of legal documents serving state management in the domestic market sector to ensure that they are consistent with practical situations, effectively serving the management of the macro economy and the purchase and sale of goods by people and businesses.

– Organize to effectively implement the Domestic Trade Development Strategy for the period up to 2030, with a vision to 2045 and Programs and projects on domestic trade development such as: Project on Innovation in Agricultural Product Consumption Business Methods for the period 2021 - 2025 with a vision to 2030; Project on Domestic Market Development associated with the Campaign "Vietnamese people prioritize using Vietnamese goods" for the period 2021-2025; Program on Trade Development in Mountainous, Remote, and Island Areas for the period 2021-2025; Program on Development of Vietnam Border Trade Infrastructure for the period 2025, with a vision to 2030, etc.

– The Ministry of Industry and Trade continues to coordinate with local ministries and branches to closely monitor market developments, ensuring adequate supply of essential goods to meet people's needs, especially during peak holidays and Tet, to avoid shortages and price hikes.

– Coordinate with ministries and branches in advising on price management of state-controlled goods, including petroleum products, to ensure the supply of petroleum products in the market, contributing to controlling general inflation according to the Government's target.

– Coordinate with media units inside and outside the Ministry to focus on providing full information to people about the supply situation of goods... to create a stable mentality for consumers, promptly handle false information that causes psychological instability for consumers.

– Coordinate the implementation of criteria and standards on commercial infrastructure (criteria on rural commercial infrastructure in the period 2021-2025; pilot market model ensuring food safety according to Vietnamese Standards (TCVN 11856) on food trading markets...).

For promoting import and export of goods:

– Closely monitor market developments and policy changes of partners to propose appropriate solutions, diversify traditional and new export markets. At the same time, continue to promptly inform industry associations about developments in export markets so that enterprises can promptly adjust production plans accordingly, orient to seek orders from markets; maintain regular trade promotion conferences with the Vietnamese Trade Office system abroad. Direct the Vietnamese Trade Office system in market areas to regularly update information on foreign market situations; regulations, standards, and conditions of foreign markets that may affect Vietnam's import and export activities and make recommendations to localities, associations, and import and export enterprises;

– Effectively exploit Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), accelerate negotiations and signing of FTAs, and establish new economic linkages to diversify markets, supply chains and boost exports;

– Developing logistics services; supporting businesses to strongly shift to official export associated with brand building;

– Strengthen capacity in trade defense, perfect the legal system, institutions, and inter-sectoral and local coordination mechanisms; Proactively monitor and protect the legitimate interests of domestic manufacturing industries;

– Continue to improve and promote early warning of foreign trade defense cases against Vietnamese export goods;

– Continue to promote the fight against evasion of trade defense measures and origin fraud;

– Strengthen information work and disseminate knowledge about trade defense for manufacturing industries and businesses.

According to Ministry of Industry and Trade